While
I don’t mean to discount any efforts to change the pattern of fuel over-consumption, I
am interested in what other options we might have in the near future. Sure there are hybrids and electric vehicles,
developments in biofuel, and increased fuel efficiency with the roll-out of the
industry’s new line of cars each year; but each of these options suffers from trade-offs that make them less than ideal solutions. When is the next revolution in personal
transportation going to start really solving some problems?
Where
better to start my search for the sustainable vehicle of the future than with a
TED Talk:
I
know it’s 15 minutes long, but watch it.
The speaker, Mark Frohnmayer, gives a good overview of our
transportation history and where we are today (the first 7 minutes), as well as
his view of some solutions for the future (the next 5 minutes), plus Google’s self-driving
car (the following 1.5 minutes). He wraps up his
presentation by combining the most promising technologies to create a sustainable vehicle vision for the future: “a fleet
of ultra-efficient, electric, self-driving vehicles cruising around the city,
available at the touch of a button on your phone”. Pretty cool.
Of
course, I had to delve deeper into Google’s technology. According to a Wall Street Journal blog, a spinning laser
device is mounted to the top of the car (either a Prius or a Lexus RX450h
hybrid) and shoots 1.5 million beams per second up to 230 feet in all
directions. “’Adaptive cruise control’
radar, which senses movement more than 650 feet around the car, sits on the
front grille. A camera on the windshield
looks for traffic lights, signs, and traffic cones.” All of that data is collected and combined
with information from external sources, including GPS and Google Maps, to
autonomously control the vehicle. Sound
super-cool but super-scary? I thought so
too. Check out this video to see what it’s
like from the driver’s seat:
Self-driving
electric autos sound like a good start to the next vehicle revolution. And with “10.8 million motor vehicle
accidents in 2009 resulting in 36,000 deaths,” I might be willing to take the chance that a computer could do a better job than a lot of drivers out there
on the roads today. Read more on this and Google’s
300,000 mile self-driving milestone here.
Frohnmayer’s
holistic vision for the future of personal transportation also reminded me of another
holistic sustainability initiative, Masdar City. Located in Abu Dhabi, Masdar City is designed to be a sustainable, zero-carbon, zero-waste community and a hub for cleantech companies. (For a video overview, click here.) And while I could go on about a lot of the
innovative technologies the World’s Sustainable City is implementing, I’ll
stick to the transportation theme for the time being. The city’s original plans included the development of a Personal Rapid Transit system that would eliminate the use of fossil-fueled
vehicles. The driver-less pods would carry 2 to 6 passengers, run along tracks connecting between 85 and
100 stations, and be powered by electricity generated by solar power arrays. Unfortunately, Masdar City planners abandoned these plans due
to budget constraints, but the prototypes are still in place.
My
search for the future of sustainable personal transportation resulted in some
interesting and exciting new technology that is clearly not going to be
available for widespread use anytime in the very near future. So until then, I’m stuck with either the guilt of driving my
Volkswagen or the option to get out of the driver’s seat and onto a bicycle
seat. But the race for the next personal
transportation revolution is on, and I can’t wait to see who wins.
Julie, thanks for your post. That video we watched today in class about Masdar City felt like something out of a science fiction movie; driver-less pods that run on a grid? I'm happy to see you posted about it as well.
ReplyDeleteThis pod idea would definitely revolutionize transportation. But is it truly feasible? Chad (I think it was Chad) brought up a good point in class- how would we retrofit cities? Are driver-less cars the direction we are headed in? Or is it more feasible to make the current vehicles on the road more efficient?
As cool as the driver-less cars are, how efficient would they be in certain situations? Like in the video they went through the Taco Bell drive through. You plug into the car that you want to go to Taco Bell, but how does it know that you want to go to the drive through? And parking spots? Does it just pick the first spot it sees or will it try and get the closest spot available? What happens when you change your mind about where you are going or how you want to get there? Or construction on the highway? What about malfunctions? What happens if this technology is adopted by vehicles that are not high-efficiency? Just some things to think about!
ReplyDeleteI agree that convincing people who are not so concerned about their environmental impact to stop driving or even drive less will be a difficult task, and increasing walking and public transportation options may not be enough. The self-driving cars sound really interesting, but they may also be hard for disbelievers to buy into. I can hardly convince my mom and some other to use cruise control on the interstate because they feel "out of control," despite the increased fuel efficiency. I can see this same issue arising with driver-less cars.
ReplyDeleteThe self-driving cars are very unique. I’m somewhat of a control freak and I think it would be difficult for me to adjust to not being in control of the vehicle. But an advantage would be the ability to get work done on the way or send that text safely. That was a pretty remarkable story about the blind man using the self-driving car, but I’m not sure if that would provide an advantage to any other demographic. The more technology you put into a vehicle the greater the chance for system/part malfunction. After watching the videos you posted I’ve noticed there is a lot of technology involved with the pods. Indeed Masdar City would be a very sustainable place but would it be functional? Also, owning and maintaining your own vehicle gives you a sense of ownership and responsibility. Because the pods are no one’s personal property this may be an invitation to litter or vandalize. One thing that wasn’t mentioned was servicing and accessibility to the pods if they are stuck on a track or if backup systems exist. Although I may have discussed some of the weaknesses with the program I still think this program/city is wonderful and it’s sad to hear that the project was abandoned! I hope they will continue to build it or utilize those resources elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteSelf-driving cars will also pose interesting insurance and enforcement questions. Who will be at fault in the event of a crash? How do you evaluate risk when insuring these vehicles? Who should bear more responsibility, the occupant or the manufacturer? The answers to these questions will be interesting to follow as this technology becomes more widespread.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason every time I read/hear about self driving cars I am reminded of the movie I, Robot and how every vehicle was given to robot control and how bad that can turn quickly. But to go off of Jeff's, there are times where a human's reaction far outweighs a computer AI based on factors a computer cannot comprehend. Basically as Jeff said, when an accident is unavoidable how does a program (no matter how advanced the AI) choose what to do and who is at fault for the accident?
ReplyDeleteThough I have always, always, thought a self/automatic control for large highways was the path of the future. Something where you'd get on (I'm from Pennsylvania so follow me a moment) the Turnpike and some form of self driving program would take over (you'd have to have the car and accept the fact that when you get on this road that this happens) and just push the button of the exit you want and off you go. But I live in a strange fantastical future.
Julie, thanks for sharing the great TED talk and showcasing some of these awesome technologies. This is clearly the direction we will have to head with personal transportation. I don't have too much to add here other than I hope that we address the overhanging problem with electric powered vehicles. They still (predominately) run on electricity that produces GHG emissions. We need to fundamentally shift our energy sources to make these vehicles truly a clean and zero emission technology by powering them with renewable energies.
ReplyDeleteThanks for bringing in some of these technologies that we might see more of in the future! As I mentioned in class, on a recent airplane ride I sat next to a man who was really excited about the sustainability potential of the self-driving cars. But...I still don't really understand the sustainability benefits of having driverless cars, aside from having fewer cars produced/consumed since the technology can facilitate car sharing more conveniently than we can now. But aren't the same number of people still driving the same distances that they would be if they owned their own car? And might the emissions (from gasoline or from however the electricity is generated) actually be higher for a self-driving car that is shared because it has all the in-between vehicle miles traveled to get from passenger to passenger, whereas a car used normally would be driven from A to B and then stay parked at B until the user was ready to return to A? Did you see anything in your research that relates to these types of things?
ReplyDeleteHi Calley, thanks for commenting! What I've seen in regards to the sustainability benefits, specifically from an environmental perspective, come not from a few people adapting to this technology but from a fundamental shift in the way we use transportation. It's definitely decades away, but imagine a network of driver-less cars that show up at your door by making a simple online reservation. The vehicles not only drive themselves but communicate with one another, reducing both the occurrence of accidents and the incidence of congestion dramatically. Because cars are not owned, the number produced are also drastically reduced, saving energy and materials in production. On top of all that, the need for vast expanses of parking spaces is greatly reduced, leaving more space for green areas and natural environments. I could go on, but if you're interested in reading more speculation on the possibilities, below is a link to a Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy blog that details this vision of the future. There's also a great KPMG white paper referenced and linked in the blog with some statistical studies that show the numerical impact this change could have. I know it sounds a bit crazy right now, but that's what innovation is all about! Hope this helps!
Deletehttp://ssppjournal.blogspot.com/2012/10/can-driverless-cars-drive-sustainability.html
When I think of self driving cars, I initially think of them in a very futuristic sense. Then I remember that back in 1997, I traveled out to San Diego with my dad (an engineer) who was working on a project with GM and the US National Automated Highway System Consortium. They demonstrated automated driving on I-15. It's interesting to see how this technology was feasible 15 years ago, but isn't widely used today. For more information on the project, here is a paper: http://www.ri.cmu.edu/pub_files/pub2/thorpe_charles_1997_2/thorpe_charles_1997_2.pdf
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of self driving autos, but I don't know how satisfactory they would actually be. I would definitely try it out, but maybe not take them if I'm in a hurry. Somehow the process seems long. Also, how fast/slow do these cars go? The video also mentioned that in the future you would be able to change your destination if need be. The idea of it not being very flexible just yet would probably discourage consumers. However, it does seem like a great initiative and could possibly turn out to be something big.
ReplyDeleteJulie -- great stuff! I also find myself with the same guilt as I walk out the door to hop in the car when I have a bike sitting in my apt. I am trying to change my habits, but when I have more stuff I have to bring with me than can fit on my back, the alternative seems logistically unfeasible. A few thoughts on new technologies and the likelihood to change: 1) it's amazing how technological innovation can change the way we move. This is not a new phenomenon (horse to cart to car), but it's still great to see that it's possible. However, 2) my initial reaction is that none of these technologies will actually change unless a) those who control our current driving habits (auto-manufacturers) make these alternatives more economically enticing/cheaper than our current Ford F-150s, while delivering on all of the same benefits, and b) we have enough money to completely change our infrastructure. The self driving pods are cool, but certainly require an infrastructure change and it a climate of budget cuts - it just doesn't seem feasible. Yes, Google is amazingly innovative, but we have to think about the minimal amount of behavior change necessary for the consumer -- if they could purchase this from their local Toyota dealer, how much would it cost and how many campaigns would we have to throw at them to get them to trust (per David's point), that this was a better option. Thanks for sharing TEDs (always inspirational).
ReplyDelete